Contador to win Stage 18 of the Tour?
Contador looks to continue winning stages this Thursday.
The 2009 Tour de France continues at crono course in the city of Annecy with stage 18. The course is mostly flat, interrupted by one category 3 climb. And since we all know Lance Armstrong wouldn’t be winning anything this year, I guess the excitement will remain flat as well.
Among the general classification riders, Alberto Contador and Cadel Evans have shown especially well against the clock so far this season. Evans and Contador have traded results, with Evans coming out on top at the Criterium Dauphine Libere and Contador placing higher in the Tour’s opening time trial in Monaco.
Contador’s teammate, Levi Leipheimer, meanwhile, came close to beating a flying Denis Menchov at the Cinque Terre time trial during the Giro d’Italia. Leipheimer placed third in the 2006 Tour de France on the strength of his consistent climbing and solid time trialing. Perhaps he has a repeat in mind for this year.
The Garmin-Slipstream riders Christian Vandevelde and Bradley Wiggins also time trial well, and if their form holds through the mountains, they both should do strong rides here. Wiggins has no previous history of riding high in the general classification, because of his long-time focus on riding the Olympics on the track. This season he showed well in the opening mountain stages of the Giro, but fell back under the cumulative effect of multiple climbing efforts. Vandevelde, meanwhile, has returned from serious injury, and it’s impossible to predict how well he will ride in the final week of this Tour.
The category 3 should help the climbers, but they will need to use the mountains to gain their advantage. Carlos Sastre can ride a decent crono when the situation demands it, but the watch is not his best friend when it comes to winning the general classification. Likewise for Andy Schleck, who has improved his skills against the watch, but remains better in the mountains. Frank Schleck, meanwhile, has not shown much of anything in the crono, and will be hoping to survive the day in Annecy. Both Sastre and the Schlecks will be dreaming of Mont Ventoux.
The kids at Liquigas-Doimo, Vincenzo Nibali and Roman Kreuziger are both strong in the time trial, but this year marks only their second attempt at the Tour de France. By the third week of this race, they may find themselves several time zones out of the general classification, though a top ten finish for either rider would be an excellent result. Let’s see how they survive the Alps, then we can talk about Annecy and the general classification.
For the stage win, this course should favor the specialists, but much depends on how much work these riders do for their team leaders. In the normal way of things, Fabian Cancellara is unbeatable against the watch, but he will be doing a great deal of work to support team leaders Frank and Andy Schleck during the second and third weeks of this year’s Tour.
Cancellara typically has not placed especially high in the third week time trials as a consequence. This dynamic often applies to other crono specialists during the three week Tours, because their big engines play an important role in helping the teams control the race, keep their team leaders in a good position in the field, and bring back threatening breakaways.
Other riders to watch incude David Millar, Bert Grabsch, David Zabriskie, Gustav Larsson, Denis Menchov and Lance Armstrong, if you’re still hoping for a miracle.
Can Alberto Contador win the 2009 Tour de France? Bodog sportsbook has the odds.
Lance Armstrong 3.50
Alberto Contador 1.73
Cadel Evans 21.00
Mark Cavendish 501.00
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