World Lightweight Championship: Corrales vs Castillo
Saturday is the final clash between Diego “Chico” Corrales (40-3, 33 KOs) and Jose Luis Castillo (54-7-1, 47 KOs) for the lightweight championship of the world. Though 70 pounds south, they’re true heavyweights. Online Sportsbook odds are Castillo -220, Corrales +180 - based on what?
Tale of the tape: Corrales, 28, is a lightweight freak, 5-11 with a half-inch fist, forearm and thigh advantage over the 5-8, 32-year-old Castillo – plus a one inch bigger expanded chest, reach, bicep and calf. Castillo needs a ladder to reach him (on paper).
Corrales has had great success against smaller, aggressive guys. Castillo is strong enough mentally and big enough physically (He demonstrated that last time with Chico) to
mete out plenty of pain of his own.
But the physical discrepancies don’t apply here. Corrales doesn’t fight tall. He likes to walk in and unload hooks and rights – bang on the inside, fight short. He likes it physical.
Reviewing their first bout, the world amazed at Corrales’ success when he made space. When he pushed off on Castillo and attacked from the outside, he was effective dropping right hands and short hooks. He used the jab to control the pace - Castillo had no answers. So, why doesn‘t he stick with it? He’s like the guy that threw himself on cactus and when asked why said: “It seemed like a good idea at the time.”
Think back to Corrales-Casamayor II. Stick and move. Outbox the guy. Corrales’ trainer, Joe Goossen, should put it in letters of fire on a ringside billboard. Also, Castillo is prone to cuts. Spear him with the jab; open the scar tissue. Double-jab – right over the top, keep moving. Do that all night, and Corrales gets the W. But, it isn’t a safe bet.
Chin Check: Corrales is no stranger to the canvas.
Floyd Mayweather dropped him five times one night. Castillo and Joel Casamayor scored five knockdowns and one knockout against him. You can develop muscles, strengthen your mind, but you can’t train a chin. Plus, Castillo has found something with that short left hook.
In a recent FHM interview, Corrales analyzed the punch:
“I got a left hook in that second fight and that was purely my mistake. I caught him with my right hand, and he was ready for it. I felt him pulling himself down and really losing some steam. I need to make sure my hand is at home and never cocked.”
These guys bristle with macho. Expect the first few rounds to be more controlled: Corrales moving and setting the pace. Once Castillo breaks through, it’s “MACHO TIME”. We must agree with the sportsbook odds - if Corrales’ chin holds up, he’ll land enough punches to eke out a split decision.
Boxing Betting Tips: Corrales to win via 7th round stoppage.
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