Guide to NFL betting: Classic NFL wagering strategy advises betting against Super Bowl champion
A classic NFL wagering strategy advises betting against the winner of the Super Bowl early in the subsequent regular season.
Not only will the point spreads in those games be artificially inflated because of the hype surrounding the champ, according to the strategy, but the Super Bowl winner’s opponents will be especially motivated to score an upset.
It’s time to put this theory to rest.
In his superb 2001 book “Sharp Sports Betting,” gambling authority Stanford Wong reported the strategy was a consistent money-earner from 1985 to 2000. Betting against the Super Bowl champion in the season’s first six weeks yielded a record of 52-36-1 (59 percent) against the point spread in that period, according to Wong’s research. (He considered bye weeks “no action.”)
Since then, however, the theory has been a consistent money-burner - probably because the sports betting marketplace caught up with and adjusted to the trend.
Since 2001, it has yielded a record of 14-15-1 against the spread (48 percent).
Opening betting lines on the Super Bowl champ Pittsburgh Steelers’ early games seem to confirm the theory has lost its luster.
Before the lines were temporarily taken off the board due to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s motorcycle crash, the Steelers had been installed as an underdog in two early “games of the year” by most online NFL sportsbooks. That’s some inflated line.
Pittsburgh was a 1-point underdog against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sept. 18 and a 2-point underdog to the San Diego Chargers on Oct. 8 according to online NFL bookies offering early NFL betting odds.
Lines on the Steelers games are expected to be re-posted when Roethlisberger’s status becomes clearer.
The NFL fans are excitedfor the opening of the 2006 NFL season. So, too, might some eager bettors on Sports Interaction, who might just be interested in the NFL Teams winning the NFC. And beyond. Get all your NFL betting odds and Superbowl betting lines at Sports Interaction now!
NFL Betting Game Picks: Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC this time en route to a Superbowl matchup with the Indianapolis Colts.
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